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Comments on Financial Culture: Long live Inflation! Reality is never Denied. Central Bankers are still trying to figure out what has already happened. The beginning of a major shift in markets has already happened. Such Trends are simply the unfolding of the obvious. The Timing remains for more weakness in Q4. My old friend Jerome clearly knows how to raise rates but does he know how to slowdown the rise of rates? He does. He was never that fast. That is not his thing. He has read: “The History of Interest Rates,” by Sidney Homer. Randy Forsyth of Barron’s has too. Those who know history know that Rate Cycles take time! Rates rose for 100 years in Rome! Don’t focus on Peaks in Inflation. We are still in a Valley, Live the landscape you are in. The future is still in the Future, Always will be.
EQUITY STRATEGY: Stocks have notably corrected The ‘Lapdance of Liquidity’ initiated an Inflation. This Fall offered another defined corrective period. Wars never end well. But, Investors are tired of all the gloom and doom.
EQUITY TACTICS: Stocks put in lows on the 0% bullish. Recovering.
GLOBAL EQUITIES: Still troubled. But bounces are developing.
FIXED INCOME: Secular “Bull Trap” continues. But Bounces surprise?
FOREX: Dollar is still a darling? But the larger pattern has been for a Fall Fall.
COMMODITIES: Markets “Knew” Inflation was coming. “It isn’t over.” Stuff is bid. Crypto “Stagnant.” but coming alive. ENERGY: “Still bullish.”
EQUITY SENTIMENT: The Bullish Complacency over the last years was abandoned as this year took on considerable corrective realities. Sentiment reached an initial negative extreme in February. Bounces resolved into the 10/13 Low. The ‘Tickle’ then is an even bigger ‘Tell’
QQQ Weekly: The Tech Correction has been sizable. But it appears to have made a divergent ’tickle’ at the lows. That is a signal of a decent low which may yet turn out to be the interim low. This configuration infers that pessimism may have been discounted. This Bounce may yet resolve into a durable trend.
GLOBAL EQUITY STRATEGY: German Equities remain corrective. But they do show signs of coming to life. Profiles allowed for these recent declines into Q3/Q4 as profiled. That negativity is coming to conclusion. Bounces like these can come and go during Marled Wars.
Volatility: (VIX) Profile: VIX has been congesting. The uptrend from an extended base continues to favor eventual Upside potential. Uncertainty isn’t going away. Be a bidder. Initial extremes occurred
THE SENTIMENT PROFILE: The DORSEY Market Sentiment generated high bullish sentiment over the last years. Complacency was rife. The declines during the year produced mini panics generating 0% daily sentiment readings. The last one near 10/13 showed a technical ‘tickle’ with a divergent spike down which went nowhere and started a robust recovery. That price catharsis is allowing for a fourth quarter recovery. Investors are bored by the media grabs of negativity.
DAILY EQUITY PROFILE: The IWM continues to be a good tell of what the overall Equity Markets. This recovery has been welcome and reinforces an overall trend. It may signal a sleuth rally within the context of deeply troubled asset landscape. Expect more of a recovery.
FIXED INCOME STRATEGY: Ho Hum. ‘Rates Rising for Decades.’ Obscene Liquidity was, structurally negligent. Repeat: “The Profile was for a Rate High to occur near 2024.” Central Bankers are still playing games that they assume will work. I advised B4 it happened: “Rates going 3%-3.25%.” Hello. 4% is a stopping level for now?
FIXED INCOME TACTICS: Treasuries have been in a trending function which has been historically, headed lower. TLT has, again as expected, continued a steady decline towards Reality. Talking Heads keep explaining Inflation & Global Tightening. Bounces are Fine from here.
GDX Profiles: Reflation, as allowed, was segueing towards an uncertain Inflationary outcome. Precious Metals profiles were: “Generically bid,” inferring inevitable Gold strength.” Yet it strangely gave way to a decline. Repeat from last month: “Gold is close to forming an interim low B4 a Fall rally. It turns.
FOREX DIAGNOSIS: The Dollar had entered an overt break out. The Rising Rate Reality was obviously supportive and allowed for overt bidding persistence. But that story tires. Fall Fall for the Dollar.
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