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Comments on Financial Culture: Markets are in change of us, as usual. Nothing has changed. Rates Rise. Climate Changes. Politicians Pontificate. Trumpel-stilt-skin is still raving. Is he really back? ‘Stranger things,’ have happened. Central Bankers don’t understand this new phase of Financial Culture. Profiles remain for a potential initial equity extreme in Q4. Jerome, our elected Jesuitical Rate Riser has his adopted religion? Rates are rising. In, “The History of Interest Rates,” Sidney Homer showed that in Rome, rates rose for a 100 years! So, there is still plenty of room for rates to rise, over time.
Meta Market Semiotics: Inflation & Rates Rises have not peaked. Investors remain on a difficult and an uncertain battlefield.
EQUITY STRATEGY: Stocks remain corrective. The foolish ‘Lap-dance of Liquidity’ initiated an Inflation and a Recession, which, while now beginning to be known, is far from over. Q4 has the best potential for an interim corrective nadir. Wars never end well nor will 2022. Let Stocks correct into October.
EQUITY TACTICS: Stocks have entered a new troubled phase.
GLOBAL EQUITIES: Remain troubled. Bounces not important yet.
FIXED INCOME: Expected secular “Bull Trap” continues. No surprises.
FOREX: Dollar is on a rogue runaway move. Reversed but Fall Fall is brewing.
COMMODITIES: Markets “Knew” all about Inflation? Do they? “It isn’t over.” Stuff is still in demand. Crypto: “Expected Q4 low.” ENERGY: Still has a Bullish bias. Profile for another hard run this Fall. Be aware of a Winter.
EQUITY SENTIMENT: The Bullish Complacency of the last few years has clearly faltered. New realities have emerged. Sentiment has turned down again synchronous with an anticipated Fall decline. It would be both perfect & great to for a very negative nadir in October.
QQQ Weekly: The Tech Correction was wonderful and had a wonderful recovery. Still, this correction was profiled to be of a secular degree. And Bounces are resolving into more weakness. Again, this profile had a defined negative downside opportunity into October and Election machinations.
GLOBAL EQUITY STRATEGY: German Equities had a wonderful correction. From a classic double bottom, the beginnings of a recovery bounce are happening. Still, Q3/Q4 remain due to be negative. So, beware of the potential for some downside surprises in the fall.
Volatility: (VIX) Profile: The VIX remains relatively congested but keeps rallying from an extended base. Uncertainty is never going away. Profiles remain for a ‘potential Fall explosion.’ Getting started.
TACTICAL SENTIMENT: The DORSEY Market Sentiment had been complacently high bullish for years. The mini panic of 0% Sentiment in Mid-June. Big bounces from there generated a 98% which topped it. Now, new low sentiment is here again. But the profile is still lower
EQUITY PROFILE: The IWM index continues to be a good mirror for equity appetite. The recent recovery has failed miserably. It looks like it was all just a bear market rally. These Summer ranges are already well resolving into an overt Fall failure. Negative into October.
FIXED INCOME STRATEGY: “Rates Rising for Decades!” Obscene Liquidity was, structurally negligent. Profiles suggested: A “Rate high remains due near 2024.” Global Central Bankers are finally getting it. As advised some time ago: “Inflation is Real.” Rate Rises cannot change Climate Change nor troops doings on the Russian Tundra.
FIXED INCOME TACTICS: Treasuries had a recovery bounce for two months. It was a case of discounting what was known. That was all just a fent as we see. The trending function to higher rates is far from over. Talking Heads don’t know anything. Don’t listen to any stories.
Gold Weekly: Inflation, as allowed, has become a significant macroeconomic factor. But it still has not translated into Precious Metals strength. Profiles remain bullish though they have not responded. Gold is technically in an elongated congestion. This infers a potential rally this Fall. This is the time?
FOREX DIAGNOSIS: The Dollar is in a runaway. There is a renewed global Tightening at work. Rising Rates are not all. This is about the uncertain woes in Europe. The profile prefers a Fall Fall for the Dollar.
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