PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU BOOKMARK OR SAVE THIS PAGE-IT ONLY GETS DELIVERED ONCE-THE CRYPTO REPORT IS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE
MARKET ENVIRONMENT: by Woody Dorsey. The interim profile is negative. STOCKS ARE CORRECTING. Repeat: “Upside for 2021 is over. Hyperinflation is coming. Sure, it will be transitory but, isn’t everything?” Sentiment is coming in today @ 72% Bullish. After the surge in negative sentiment numbers, bounces were in order. Expect more bounces and great volatility but this is only the beginning phase of the expected interim decline. It has some resonance to the important declines in March of 2020!
Last Week: “Risk Off can happen in a hurry! Expect more downside surprises.” Now, lets have a few upside parties. Don’t be fooled.
NEAR TERM: Bounces and volatility. The first salvo is over but don’t be seduced by rallies. Recoveries possible into 12/16-17.
INTERIM TERM: The timing structure remains: “Interim correction into February/March.” That is a wonderful profile. Get used to it before everyone else does. They still don’t really get it.
DORSEY MARKET SENTIMENT: Extreme bullish complacency was best interpreted as a structural psychological error. It was. Sentiment had been overly optimistic. Yes, recent sentiment has been abysmal. This negativity is a ‘kickoff’ for this new corrective game but also allows for the bounces we are seeing.
MARKET SUMMARY: Equity deterioration remains due into February/March 2022. Inflation may be transitory and only last for a decade or so? Easy money was too easy. Markets will pay for that during this correction. Enjoy this recovery.
Trading Instrument (Gary Uses) My Trading Instruments are all based off of SPX numbers, but for long side trades I use (SSO) the 2x leveraged etf that follows the S&P 500 and when expecting the market to move lower, I use (SDS) the 2x leveraged etf that follows the S&P 500, it moves higher when spx moves lower.
TECHNICAL VIEW by Gary Dean: When we are in an environment that is simply trapping both bulls/bears, it is very dangerous! It is hard to pinpoint exact entries/exits when we are moving 1000 mph. But what we can do is look at clues to determine whether it is safe to buy/short and give it some room. At the highs, risk was 100% on the side of the bulls and we saw a nice 250 drop. We had NYAD divergences-technical divergences as well as a wave pattern that was very mature. The FIRST downside target was always between 4575/4535. Once we broke through the 50 dma, the door was open for 4535 and we went a little below, but at that point, risk was on the side of the bears. We had bullish divergences on the NYAD, technical buy signals and most were all out bearish on the markets. Today we are some 160 points off those lows in just 2 days–that is fast and furious movement!!
The preferred pattern is that the larger wave 5 completed and we are in the beginning stages of a much larger drop. But the bears have to defend the 4707/4725 or they will lose total control and new highs would be expected. Until that happens, I will stick with the preferred wave pattern. I am not seeing any sell signals yet, but I will be watching the resistance zone and see if we do get some sell signals.
The bullish divergences were a warning for the short side. But was not anticipated was the huge gap higher open and reversal. I believe that washed out any bottom pickers and now they are waiting for entry. If history is our guide, they will get in right before we head lower. There are no bearish divergences-so expect down and then up to set up some sell signals. Until we see them, shorting is very dangerous. If you decided to try the long side, start putting stops in place.
I have been saying that I expected the open gap to get filled before we head down again. The bulls did that in just 2 days. Now I want to wait for sell signals to hit, but not force a short trade. It is seasonality-bullish for the markets. Be patient and I am NOT against maybe looking long again if price comes back down.
Summary: The bulls didn’t take long to fill the gap. There are no sell signals, so expect a down/up move before looking short. I am on the fence with either way–meaning if we come down some and support holds, get long. If we see sell signals up here-look short. Right now-I am not seeing either. G
Information is for paid subscribers & may not be copied or distributed. © Copyright 2021. The information contained herein was provided by Sentiment Timing and/or its publishers does not make any representation or warrant with regard hereto, including but not limited to those of accuracy, completeness, reliability, timeliness and/or infringement on the rights of third parties. This Publication expresses a view on the markets but is not intended to provide any specific recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing is Uncertain and always carries Risk. Of Losses. Subscribers should always assess Market Risk parameters with their broker or financial adviser.
Information is for paid customers and may not be copied or distributed Copyright 2021
PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU BOOKMARK OR SAVE THIS PAGE-IT ONLY GETS DELIVERED ONCE
The Crypto Sangha: No Change: Everyone keeps opining about Crypto. There is a lot of shouting out there. It is almost exciting. Not re[1]ally. Believe whatever you want to Believe. It does seems like it has always been a bit too easy to be bullish about Crypto. Still, these assets really are in a unique historical position. What just happened? Excessive Complacency across all markets met a major RISK OFF constellation. December is not bullish for Stocks nor Crypto! The interim pattern is Bearish for Stocks into February. This exact profile has a resonance with the Big Break in March of 2020! Does that have to repeat? No. But it could. Interim Cycle and Trend Durations remain configured for Crypto to continue generic strength from the Bitcoin Halving of 5/11/20 into 2022.
Weekly Chart: The dramatic decline of the last week does not change anything. Bitcoin is simply in a dramatic corrective congestion. Be Bullish but not Greedy. Real traders respect Risk. It is out there. Respect it. May our Sangha respectfully seek Clairvoyance, Clairaudience and Patience
Daily Crypto: This asset class remains Okay. So, don’t get weird on it because everyone told you it had to go up big almost every day. Keep ignoring all he Hopeful Hucksters with their sordid boring stories. It is a two-way market. This is what markets do. Why not enjoy the show until 2022!
The Daily Pattern: The recent scary breakdown does not have the characteristics of a major reversal. Yes, while this RISK OFF pattern un[1]folds, Crypto could produce some unexpectedly interesting price behavior. What? Could it go to 40,000? Sure. So what. Can it flash to 60,000 or even 65,000 before selling off hard again? Sure. Might stellar alt coins keep coiling without any major corrections? Yes. It really is the Wild West as some critics have called it. There is nothing wrong with the West nor the East.
Dorsey Crypto Report: 11/18/2021
Daily Crypto: The trending function in this asset class remains bullish. Crypto Charts make for good reading once you ignore all the Hopeful Hucksters with their sordid boring stories. It is a two-way market. Bull markets do get extended. Yes, that can be scary. That is what they do. Each day’s trading tells us more and more about the timing pattern. It does have a configuration for another imminent rally. Next few days may be telling.
The Daily Pattern: This current scary correction does not have the characteristics of a major rejection. It does have characteristics of a tricky congestive correction. Look at the typical heuristics shown below.
Micro Crypto Trading Pattern: The minor timing sequence is well identified. Sure, there is never a guarantee of anything or of any particular-price level. But there is a cogent near-term price pattern suggesting a Crypto trading low between now and 11/22. Note recent heuristic declines. A replication of those patterns could ideally mirror a timing low near tomorrow with support between 5600-5800. A sweet spot is brewing, and it is smelling but the trading low may not be confirmed, like Jerome, until next week? December does have a bullish bias. These patterns all add up. Join the club. Become part of the Crypto Sangha. Get cryptic.
Summary: Be Bullish but not Greedy. Buy on Breaks. Dollar cost into position. Sure, there will be a time to let it all go but this is not that time.
Information is for paid subscribers & may not be copied or distributed. © Copyright 2021. The information contained herein was provided by Sentiment Timing and/or its publishers does not make any representation or warrant with regard hereto, including but not limited to those of accuracy, completeness, reliability, timeliness and/or infringement on the rights of third parties. This Publication expresses a view on the markets but is not intended to provide any specific recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing is Uncertain and always carries Risk. Of Losses. Subscribers should always assess Market Risk parameters with their broker or financial adviser.
Information is for paid customers and may not be copied or distributed Copyright 2021