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COMMENTS ON FINANCIAL CULTURE: Global Liquidity gambits are still operative and are still slowly exposing Central Bank hubris. Meanwhile,
Stocks are still booming. It does beggar ones Neuroplasticity! Mental flexibly seems especially challenging. As stocks go higher it does not mean that you have to Believe in them? As noted: “Maybe this Bubble will keep on blowing up?” It has but what if is the beginning of a Hyper Inflation!! Is there a better Normal than Reality? Uncertainty never makes rational sense until it happens.
The Market Scape: Complacency never ever seems bizarre? We all tend to come to expect it. Rate Rises will only matter when no one is ready. Could “Covid,” morph into a structural global uncertainty? Yes. Can Inflation get Hyper? Yes, it can. It is Summer now but do you see any doldrums in sight?
EQUITY STRATEGY: The timing pattern continues suggested some important pullbacks this year. The potential June break was only of minor degree and the interim trend continued as we all see. The Liquidity ‘miracle’ continues. It will be revealed as erroneous… eventually. We are all waiting for that reveal.
EQUITY TACTICS: Stocks are tactically messy in every way. No edges.
GLOBAL EQUITIES: Congestive period is resolving towards a Fall top?
FIXED INCOME: A “Bull Trap” continues to slowly unfold. It will.
FOREX: Dollar has bottomed but is still constrained by recent ranges.
COMMODITIES: Commodities still “Feel” the Inflation. Crypto having another interim indigestion. So what. CRUDE: the Mid-June low was explosive.
GRAINS: Structurally bullish but these are weather markets. Anything goes.
EQUITY SENTIMENT: The Pattern below shows that an extended Complacency surprisingly segued into a new burst of ebullience. This
is Bullish? But Dangerous? But, Sentiment doesn’t tell us everything. It does allow that this recent episode may be closer to being a final one?
S&P Weekly: And, away we go! The profiled June corrective potential was only a hiccup which inferred that the Rodeo had a few more innings. Is this the new Reality? Is it a harbinger of hyper Inflation. The timing pattern allows upside into as late as Thanksgiving. A crazy Fall.
TACTICAL SENTIMENT: The DORSEY Market Sentiment has continued to generate relatively high bullish readings. Sure it certainly
looks ripe for setbacks but hasn’t it looked that way for awhile? Daily Sentiment came in at 96% today. I mean, how friendly can you get?
DAILY EQUITY PROFILE: The S&P 500 is clearly showing that a dynamic breakout got some legs. Why? It has to still be that same old Liquidity song? Getting too technical about the price patterning of this index has only been an akimbo exercise. Beware Rabid Dogs.
GLOBAL EQUITY STRATEGY: German Equities are continuing to defy any global concerns. The Cabal of Central Bankers either don’t care or can’t comprehend it. They want stocks, “Higher.” Germany had a kerfuffle but it resolved higher. Let it go where it wants to go.
Volatility: (VIX) Profile: The VIX continues to simmer and whimper while respecting its’ elongated key support. Can uncertainty become perpetually out of season? No. I mean, can Climate Change?
FIXED INCOME STRATEGY: Repeat: “Rates Rising for Decades.” Obscene Liquidity is revealed but not really ratified as an historic over reaction. Initial high is due into 2024. Central Bankers are playing a clueless game while Rates are slowly headed for 3%-3.25%. If Inflation is not boringly and predictably transitory, it may be Hyper?
FIXED INCOME TACTICS: Treasuries will be continuing lower for much longer than most believes possible but Delta talk etc may delay that. The larger pattern remains Ominous. Rising Rates are recognized sure, but they are not respected! Louche Bounces. Good Luck, Jerome.
CRUDE OIL STRATEGY: Crude continues to outperform the underlying equities. In fact, it has broken out above most key resistance. I had noted: “All Commodities are structurally open to higher prices. This could turn out to be an Inflation like no other.” Crude is demonstrating that potential. It shows that anything can happen.
CRYPTO: GBTC Weekly: Bitcoin put in a dramatic high. It has already well retraced that spike. I view all the coins as one phenomenon. Interim trend is basing for rally from early Fall into December. But if you are deeply into nuanced ‘doge doings,’ a short term low is due 7/16ish.
Precious Profiles: Silver has been better bid than Gold. As I had allowed. This profile suggested that another deep setback was due within its range. It has had a nice break but just had a weekly reversal. It may have bottomed but could pop and base a bit as best buying zone is still nearer September.
FOREX DIAGNOSIS: The Dollar was deeply oversold and has bounced well from weekly support. Still, there is no reason to become structurally very bullish on this currency. More range trade is due.
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