COMMENTS ON FINANCIAL CULTURE: Global Liquidity extremes are still slowly exposing Central Bank errors. As expected: “Price profiles allow markets may maintain upward slumbering into May B4.” Well that occurred but it has been even more persistent than imagined. Stocks are still
booming. It beggars ones Neuroplasticity! What? Mental flexibly is the ability to maintain a subtle mind If stocks do keep going higher that does not mean you have to Believe in them? Maybe this Bubble will keep on blowing up. Maybe it is like Gun violence? If it keeps up, eventually someone is going to get hurt! There will never any better Normal than Reality even if it is obscure. The Market Scape: Complacency never ever seems bizarre? We tend to come to expect it. Interest rate rises only matter when no one thinks they do? Is “Covid,” really ending or is it morphing into some kind of cultural trope of institutionalized uncertainty which rationalizes Inflation? Hope does seem to spring eternal but it is Summer now if we have noticed. Doldrums anyone?
EQUITY STRATEGY: The timing pattern continues to suggest that an important bout of weakness is due this year. Rate Rises may yet become acute. The Liquidity ‘miracle’ will be revealed as an error. We are still waiting for that reveal.
EQUITY TACTICS: Stocks are particularly vulnerable into 6/14ish.
GLOBAL EQUITIES: Congestive but have a surprising bid. Setbacks due.
FIXED INCOME: A “Bull Trap.” continues. Potential June collapse coming
FOREX: Dollar is in a real technical mess. Oversold but weak. Avoid bets.
COMMODITIES: Commodities are still “Feeling” the Inflation. Crypto having another dramatic indigestion. So what.
CRUDE: Down into Mid-June.
GRAINS: Structurally bullish but it is all weather markets now. Anything goes.
EQUITY SENTIMENT: The Sentiment pattern shown below argues that extended Complacency rather than sophomoric ebullience is the
most accurate psychological portrayal of the current stock market. It allows but does not promise proposed corrective episodes in Summer.
S&P Monthly: Note the price rise. It looks like Bitcoin or Copper! Is this ominous or is this a new Reality? The Monthly timing pattern still calls for a notable setback into early 2022. May was strong but now it is June. More real rate rises are due soon. Will that become important?
EQUITY SECTOR, QQQ: Technology remains an overt laggard. It had another decent 2 week bounce without going anywhere and is now reversing down again. This is not the look of a bull market. So expect more churning with a negative twist. Next 2 weeks are negative.
COPPER MONTHLY: Pick your stuff. Everything is Inflating! Copper tells the story. Extreme Liquidity, Global Boom, Compelling Retest of
2016 lows. This rally is huge. What does it mean? Still higher commodities, Inflation, Boom. More of all that but. why not setback for now.
TACTICAL SENTIMENT: The DORSEY Market Sentiment has continued to generate relatively high bullish readings over the last few weeks. Now, it certainly looks ripe for setbacks which is exactly what the price profile calls for. It is June. Why not, “Sell and Go Away.”
DAILY EQUITY PROFILE: Here we look at the Russell 2000. This broad measure is also limping along in a corrective consolidation. It is ready to break out explosively? Probably not. We watch carefully now to see if the recent blithe bidding will be rejected into the 6/14 low.
GLOBAL EQUITY STRATEGY: German Equities are hard charging again and continue to defy any global concerns. The Cabal of Central Bankers don’t care. They all want everything, “Higher” except, of course, rates. Germany should succumb to a mini June Swoon.
Volatility: (VIX) Profile: The VIX has continued to simmer and whimper while still respecting its’ elongated key support. Can uncertainty be becoming perpetually out of season? Buy in May
FIXED INCOME STRATEGY: Repeat: “Rates Rising for Decades.” Obscene Liquidity has been revealed but not really ratified. Initial high is due into 2024. Central Bankers keep playing a clueless game. As I anticipated: Rates are headed for 3% ish.” The preferred profile is for another spike this Summer ready or not. Be wary of this June.
FIXED INCOME TACTICS: Treasuries continuing lower for a lot longer than bulls believe possible. There is more to go. The larger pattern is Ominous. Rising Rates recognized but not respected! Paltry Bounces are telling. New spikes due 2-3 weeks. Good Luck, Jerome.
CRUDE OIL STRATEGY: Crude continues to outperform the underlying equities. Still, it has come up to well defined multiple resistances. I expected a setback in June which may still provide a mini plunge but like all Commodities there is a structurally open door to higher prices. This may turn out to be an Inflation like no other.
SEMICONDUCTORS: As we have been told, Chips are in short supply. Oh no! What about Salsa? Yes, market stories are just stories. Semiconductors aren’t going anywhere. In fact, it looks like they are now showing a triple top failure. That opens them up for some downside.
Precious Profiles: Silver is reaching out for a triple top and is clearly stronger than Gold.. But this configuration is more likely to resolve into another deep setback within its range. Metals acted more in misery than sympathy with Crypto Price pattern for a buying zone nearer September may be explosive.
FOREX DIAGNOSIS: The Dollar has really struggled here. It is oversold and near support but, but if it break down it will likely alter the trends of many other assets. There is no reason to make any big bets.
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