January Crypto Report

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COMMENTS ON FINANCIAL CULTURE: Long live Inflation! Central Bankers are not even desperate. This may be the beginning of a Hyper Inflation! Uncertainty only reveals itself when it does. Markets may be about to tell us something we won’t believe. Don’t Believe what you are told by all the talking heads. They are paid to talk about what they think they are hearing.

META MARKET SEMIOTICS: Keep it simple. Inflation is all in. Rates are rising. Stocks don’ t care until we get new degrees of extremes to react to.

The Market Scape: As I advised: Rate Rises were always going to happen & “Covid,” will keep morphing into more uncertainties. Inflation can become Hyper. But these negative memes are pretty-well known and discounted.

EQUITY TACTICS: Stocks are in a Bear Market. December is not friendly.

EQUITY STRATEGY: The profile suggested important declines late this year. Yep. Seasonal’ s be dammed. Next low due in February/March 2022. We are headed there now. STOCKS ARE CORRECTING. The ‘Lap-dance of Liquidity’ transitioned into a ‘Transitory’ ‘Inflation,’ which is no longer ’Transitory?”

EQUITY STRATEGY: The profile suggested declines in late 2021. Weakness was due into February. The ‘Lap-dance of Liquidity’ may be gone but it is, ‘not forgotten?’ It segued into ‘Transitory Inflation,’ which still allows for a market memory of ‘Bidding.’ The Market seems unafraid of any-and-all viral memes?

EQUITY TACTICS: Stocks are performing on a high wire tight rope act here.

GLOBAL EQUITIES: Corrective congestion was due into 2022. More.

FIXED INCOME: Expected secular “Bull Trap” continues. Dynamic soon.

FOREX: Dollar has been in a tight range preparing for an upside move soon.

COMMODITIES: Markets always “Knew” Inflation was coming & it isn’t done. Crypto expected: “Surprise by Stagnating.” CRUDE: Energy still bullish.

TACTICAL SENTIMENT: The DORSEY Market Sentiment generated high bullish readings until it didn’t. That strange toxic complacency resolved into a decline to a 1% & 2% sentiment trading low. Recent bounces then generated a 96%. This is a very strange tactical profile.

DAILY EQUITY PROFILE: The IWM demonstrated classic tactical behavior. Declines found Support and bounced back to Resistance without confirming any larger market trend. This index is currently in a dead zone. The IWM may just stay sideways for say 4-6 weeks.

EQUITY SENTIMENT: Bullish Complacency has recycled up again. Investors still love stocks, no matter what? One wonders whether any meme or any virus could ever change this elongated bullish Gestalt? Could it be that some sort of extreme hyper rally spike occurs?

QQQ Weekly: Stock Market Inflation has been Recognized and the pattern has been negative but has not been declarative. The 6–7-week correction seems to be already making noises that it may be done. Again, the question arises: “Is this Inflation going to just be bullish for Stocks.

GLOBAL EQUITY STRATEGY: German Equities have had an ex[1]tended corrective consolidation for months. The relative resilience is impressive. This makes the tactical set up interesting. But the interim profile still allows for some risk for 3-5 weeks. Inflation is bullish?

Volatility: (VIX) Profile: VIX got exciting but has not meaningfully moved out of ranges. It is still biding its time and respecting structural Support. Uncertainty (Vix) can never be perpetually out of season.

FIXED INCOME STRATEGY: Rates will be rising for Decades. Obscene Liquidity was structurally negligent. An interim rate high is due in 2024. Central Bankers only play the games they think they know how to play. They don’t know Rates are headed for 3%-3.25%. 2022 may become dynamic. Beware. Be prepared. Inflation is trending.

FIXED INCOME TACTICS: Treasuries remain purely tactical, but their destiny is definitely lower. When? I allowed that they might just grind lower for now. That is indeed what they did. ‘Grind.’ Talking Heads will keep explaining any-and all taper talk. Thank you, Talking Heads.

CRUDE OIL STRATEGY: Crude has already had an amazing rally from early 2020. The preferred profile was deemed to be bullish. As I said: “Commodities are structurally open to much higher prices. This could turn out to be an Inflation like no other.” Energy had a quick correction but has come right back. Crude may still explode.

CRYPTO: Bitcoin had a profile low back in Mid-July. Profiles preferred some shaky trade in recent weeks. It has indeed been sideways. Bidding has been due in 2022. Tactical bickering could continue but not for much longer. When the next whoosh comes it will be a surprise.

Precious Profiles: Reflation may segue into an episode of Hyperinflation. But Precious Metals have been underwhelming. Still, Stuff is well bid. Gold has been simmering maybe to some, as yet hidden purpose.? The structure is bullish. This infers Gold is getting ready to resume secular up trend. Patience!

FOREX DIAGNOSIS: The Dollar ran up to Key Weekly Resistance before stalling. I surmised that upside would pause. Rising Rates are a Reality which supports bidding. The pattern infers an upside breakout!

 

January Crypto Report

The Crypto Sangha: Nothing has Changed: Everyone is obsessed with Crypto and Believes whatever they want to Believe. Excessive Complacency was due to encounter a RISK OFF constellation: “The interim pattern in markets is Bearish into February!” Crypto is mirroring that.

Weekly Chart: Corrections are garnering negative attention. It is too easy to repeat what I advised: “Respect Risk. It is out there. Always Respect it.” Frankly, as usual, I didn’t respect that Risk enough. We humans!

The Daily Pattern: Noted: “While RISK OFF unfolds, Crypto could produce some unexpectedly interesting price behavior.” I see 1/11 low but a firm basing buying zone likely waits until February, B4Up into May.

 

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