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COMMENTS ON FINANCIAL CULTURE: Global Liquidity still rules. This Central Bank Hubris will not go unnoticed in Financial History. It still
looks like a Stock Boom! Is it? As Stocks go higher, does it mean that we have to Believe in them? What if this is more than the beginning of a Hyper Inflation!! Meanwhile, Pandemic Denial is still a better Normal than Reality? Uncertainty never fully reveals its rationale until after it is obvious. It may never really pay to blithely Believe in what you are constantly being told or sold.
The Market Scape: Complacency doesn’t even seem bizarre any more? Rate Rises will only matter when no one is ready. “Covid,” and, “Variants,” could morph into a more palpable global uncertainty? Yes. Not a ‘fake ‘panic. Not just an earnings miss. Something else. What are we all missing? Can Inflation get Hyper? Yes, it can. Maybe Summer doldrums will keep us all comfortable?
EQUITY STRATEGY: The timing pattern continues to suggest an eventual pullback later this year. Summer congestions and nominal interim trending functions seem invincible as we all see. The Liquidity ‘miracle’ continues. It will be revealed as erroneous… eventually. We are all waiting for that reveal. Ho Hum.
EQUITY TACTICS: Stocks remain tactically messy in every way. No edge.
GLOBAL EQUITIES: Congestive period may resolve towards a late Fall top?
FIXED INCOME: The “Bull Trap” continues to slowly unfold. It continues.
FOREX: Dollar bottomed but faltered at range highs. Churning.
COMMODITIES: Commodities “Feel” the Inflation. Crypto setbacks resolved into amazing Upside.
CRUDE: Mid-June low allows more upside.
GRAINS: Structurally bullish but weather markets are volatile. Anything goes.
EQUITY SENTIMENT: The chat below shows that an already extended Complacency segued into yet another divergence. This latest
episode of ebullience is impressive but it remains cautionary for any one well versed in reality. Still, Reality is often Denied for some time?
S&P Weekly: And, away we go! And still going? The June correction was only a hiccup, inferring that this Rodeo had a few more Innings. Only such mixed metaphors might describe this Market Strangeness. Is it a harbinger of Hyper Inflation? Timing allows upside into Q4?
TACTICAL SENTIMENT: The DORSEY Market Sentiment generated relatively high bullish readings. Yes, there was one hard dip leading to
a 2% reading. But, stocks bounced right back in the same way they have done all along. Strange times. Daily Sentiment is at 34% today
DAILY EQUITY PROFILE: The Russell (IWM) bottomed at support but the bounces have not been so robust, inferring weakness. Getting
too technically cute about stock indices has been a bit of an akimbo exercise. Still, this congestion does look vulnerable to the downside.
GLOBAL EQUITY STRATEGY: German Equities had a great run before a dangerous tactical rising wedge resolved into reality. Climate and Covid and now Delta cannot be denied. The Cabal of Central Bankers can’t comprehend it. Some Bounces are now underway. But.
Volatility: (VIX) Profile: The VIX has basically been simmering and whimpering within an extended base of key support. Uncertainty can never become perpetually out of season. Can Climate Change? Yes.
FIXED INCOME STRATEGY: Repeat: “Rates Rising for Decades.” Obscene Liquidity will be slowly revealed. It is still far from understood. An initial interim rate high is due in 2024. Central Bankers are playing the only game they think that they know. Rates are headed for 3%-3.25%. Inflation is neither boring nor transitory. Is it Hyper?
FIXED INCOME TACTICS: Treasuries will be continuing lower for much longer than most believe. Sure, Delta talk and such may delay
that but the larger pattern remains Ominous. Rising Rates are a bit recognized but they are not being respected! Good Luck, Jerome.
CRUDE OIL STRATEGY: Crude continues to outperform expectations. It had a shake out but is zooming right back. I had noted: “All Commodities are structurally open to higher prices. This could turn out to be an Inflation like no other.” Crude is demonstrating that potential of something Hyper. Anything can happen. Crude is bid.
CRYPTO: Ethereum Weekly: Ethereum, along with Bitcoin made an extended base before the dramatic spike high in May. It has already retraced that rally. I view all coins as one phenomenon. An interim correction has now matured and they are due for strength into year end
Precious Profiles: The profile suggested setbacks within the new structural reflation phase. Copper did have a great break but has reversed sharply. This confirms the larger profile. This behavior may tip us into something few are prepared for Hyper. Buying zones in Gold and Silver are also approaching.
FOREX DIAGNOSIS: The Dollar was deeply oversold, bounced from weekly support to Weekly resistance and then failed. This is a negative technical look. The profile preferred range trade. That is continuing.
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