“Identifying Institutional Entry & Exit Levels”
Breakout Long @ Current Levels Teck Resources (TECK (NYSE)) Market Cap (Billion) $11.8 January 2017
Medium Term Catalyst: Q4 numbers due early February (tba)
Entry: Between (current price) down to $22.60
Note these targets are based on institutional selling areas, (denoted by price previously dropping from these levels in the past)
Medium Term Target: $25.17
Longer Term Target: $26.04
Average Volume (50-day): 6.2 million
Beta: 1.46/ Forward P/E: 5.98x
Risk Management: Stop if price closes below $19.89, this could indicate a trend change
- The share has been pushing higher since early January (chart above), and recent days has seen a compelling series of higher lows (in conjunction with bullish engulfing candles), with the probability of a further break above current levels in the short term. The MACD has also crossed to the upside, with the RSI also trending higher from its December lows
- The company could be a major beneficiary of the Trump administrations infrastructure spending plans, which could prove an added kicker to a domestic construction market that has been on up. Pricing for Teck’s steel products is also improving, with sentiment towards the wider resource sector currently positive as measured by the performance of the XME exchange traded fund (see below)
- On a Peer perspective Teck looks attractive when viewed on a Price/ Book and Price/ Cash Flow basis, (discount of some 30% on the latter). Applying this figure to the current share price could imply a target price of circa $29.
- Q3 filings (unaudited) saw revenues higher by 9.7% versus the prior year period with gross profit ahead by 33% to CAD$452 million. Tailwinds included improved pricing on the back of supply disruptions. At the time management commented; “Our operations have performed very well throughout the year, setting a number of quarterly and year-to-date production records while continuing to reduce costs…”
Teck Resources is a leading Canadian resources company with operations/ projects in Canada, Chile, Peru and the United States. Latest figures – released October 27th source www.teck.com
Management commentary as at latest results
At the time Don Lindsay, President and CEO of Teck commented; “As a result of the recent increase in steel making coal prices, we are generating a significant amount of additional cash which we have used to reduce our debt by repurchasing $1.0 billion of our outstanding notes.”
Operations % Change V’s Q3 2015 (Reported)
Revenue + 9.7%
Cash flow from operations + 52%
Gross profit margins (before depreciation) Change V’s Q3 2015 (Reported)
Steelmaking coal: 35% (versus 28% for the prior year period)
Copper: 37% (versus 35% for the prior year period)
Zinc: 35% (versus 34% for the prior year period)
As at the 9 months ended September 30th 2016 cash balances stood at $1,113 million versus $1,487 for the prior year 2015 period
Further Management Commentary
“We expect total steelmaking coal sales, including spot sales, to be at or above 6.5 million tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2016.”
Medium term: Teck benefits from a broadly based revenue mix (chart below) which is split across Zinc, Steel making coal, Copper and Energy.
Growth: The U.S. economy is doing relatively well with the new Trump administration highlighting the possibility of further spending in domestic infrastructure. Teck is also benefiting from an improving pricing backdrop and positive margin development.
The chart below is that of the SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME). Over the course of the past twelve months it has performed exceptionally well on the back of an improving commodity pricing backdrop and better economy.
Investor sentiment on the stock
Currently ‘outperform’ with average target prices north of $24.
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