Sentiment Timing

  • Home
  • About
  • Join!
  • Blog
  • Affiliates
  • Members
    • Login
    • My Account
    • Member Reports
    • Logout
  • Contact

06/25/15 Sentiment Timing Report Sample

June 30, 2015

Current Market View

Stocks: Vulnerable to drop. Nearing the expected weakness period-work the short side with rally attempts into July 1st

Sentiment: Intermediate sentiment has reached bullish levels, making markets vulnerable for a drop

Expected Low: Once the top is in place-expected low due on or near 07/15

MARKET SIMPLICITY: by Woody Dorsey:  The profile for “Upside into and through the FOMC and perhaps into 7/1ish” has continued. The High due near 6/22 was actualized but it is not clear if a new decline (into 7/15ish) has already started. I note that the double Lows on 6/9 and 6/15 were a week apart and some recurrent symmetry could provide a 6/22 High and also a 6/29-7/1 High!  Equities remain in a topping process into the end of the quarter.

Yesterday’s sell-off and weak close produced a 5% Bullish reading today. Stocks are bouncing back so far today so there is no overt indication of the real break beginning as yet. Greece is only a metaphor for Vulnerability. Still, market participants will continue to use Greece as a trading rationale: “Beware Greeks Bearing IOUs!”  As always, “Maintain a flexible Trading Mind.”

MARKET ENERGY: Market Energy suggested “Friendly” FOMC vibrations. And, “Monday (6/22) was also expected to be another Up Day.” Some “backing and filling” was expected this week. It now appears that 6/22 was a High! But, there could be one more upside try next week. “Don’t be complacent.”

MARKET TIMING:  A profiled rebound into early July continues. The potential high 6/22ish has been actualized and could yet stand as significant. However, there is another High due near 7/1ish. That Holiday week, with both Month End and Quarter End aligning, could be an ideal time for a High or for a Real Failure. As I noted: “That could be a big day and usher in a correction into at least 7/15ish.” The nominal timing pattern supports that profile. Moreover, there is a specific pattern for weakness on 7/6. Which definitely suggests that any upside near 7/1-2ish date could be harshly denied.

MARKET “TELLS”: Global Equities had indicated: Global Market Changes. “As expected, that Gestalt has seemingly been discounted, near term, allowing for some relative stability.” However, even though Currency and Credit Crises have simmered down a bit, profiles still allow that they will become viral in the months ahead. Many markets seem to be in a Holiday Hiatus. That is due to change when Q3 begins.

SENTIMENT INTERPRETATION: The DORSEY Market Sentiment still identifies Key Support as being near 2040-2045 as well as the 2068ish level. The Sentiment extremes of 4% Bullish on 6/9 and 8% Bullish on 6/16 occurred at that Tactical Support near 2070ish. The Cluster of 90%+ Sentiment Readings in May was typical of a Distributive End Game. Those Sentiment extremes still argue that the Key Resistance near 2134ish is Significant. The Rally from 2068ish had a “Textbook” look. I don’t trust Textbooks. Todays 5% Bullish may only signal a pause rather than the onset of defined declines. I need to see more market time to place it in context. The 6/22 High could be Significant!

INTERMEDIATE TERM: The DORSEY Intermediate Market Sentiment has climbed right back up towards range highs. This Sentiment move thus neutralizes the oversold situation of 2 weeks ago. Nothing has changed. The See Saw continues to, “SeeSaw.” This is penultimate to some new degree of, “Tipping!”MARKET SUMMARY: Stocks have been in another tactical Recovery from overt support. The High on 6/22 holds some potential for an extreme but there is still a bit more time into 7/1ish for upside or churning seductions. It looks like the End Game, is still in Play!

TECHNICAL VIEW by Gary Dean:   Tuesday I mentioned the SPX was showing 5 waves up on the short term charts and some backing and filling to the downside would make sense-with 2110 as support. We did get that pullback and the SPX went just below the 2110 support. Things are a little tricky now, as the SPX MAY have already made 5 waves down (green labels on chart) But the door is also open that the last low was just a small wave 3 and we got the wave 4 up this morning-with another low pending-down to the 2104-2100 support zone.

If the second road map is in play down to the 2104-2100 and there are bullish divergences in place, we should see buyers step in for at least a bounce or more. If the bulls lose those levels, then they will be on the defensive and have to really defend the 2088 support. From a short term technical view-there is no clear advantage for either side yet.

Resistance Levels-2120-2124/2134

Support Levels: 2104-2100/2088

Information is for paid subscribers & may not be copied or distributed. © Copyright 2015. The information contained herein was provided by  Sentiment Timing and/or its publishers does not make any representation or warrant with regard hereto, including but not limited to those of accuracy, completeness, reliability, timeliness and/or infringement on the rights of third parties. This Publication expresses a view on the markets but is not intended to provide any specific recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing is Uncertain and always carries Risk. Of Losses. Subscribers should always assess Market Risk parameters with their broker or financial adviser.

Information is for paid customers and may not be copied or distributed Copyright 2015

Filed Under: Uncategorized

“I have benefitted from Woody Dorsey for over 13 years. The proprietary sentiment indices have been of immeasurable value in positioning for major moves in US capital markets.”
- John Porter, Global Fixed Income Manager

Get the trading advantage you’ve been looking for with The Master of Investor Sentiment, Market Timing Expert, Woody Dorsey.

GAIN INSTANT ACCESS!

© 2023 Sentiment Timing · Website by Network For Solutions · Contact Us· Affiliates